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Over the last fortnight, the particular GBP/EUR exchange rate has been rising and falling between € 1 . 11 € 1 . 12, as Brexit head lines drive demand. The EUR/GBP trade rate, meanwhile, edged up through £ 0. 89 to £ 0. 88, while GBP/USD drifted from 1 . 24 to 1. twenty two.
What’ s already been happening?
While sterling initially reacted positively to Boris Johnson’ s Brexit proposal, the particular Irish-border issue remained contentious. The particular pound quickly gave up gains, since EU officials showed little excitement for Johnson’ s “ last offer”.
However , GBP/EUR losses were limited, as the The german language composite PMI sank further directly into contraction territory in September, undermining support for the euro.
Investors were disappointed to find the composite index slid to forty eight. 5 last month, fuelled with a continued deterioration in the health from the manufacturing sector.
This particular latest underperforming German release elevated concerns that the Eurozone’ s giant economy remains on track, to get into a technical recession in the 3rd quarter.
Another bad month of factory orders put into this bearishness, with slowing global-trade conditions putting further pressure for the German economy.
So what do you need to look out for?
France President Emmanuel Macron has provided Boris Johnson until the end from the week to overhaul his strategy. It would take positive Brexit head lines to dispel no-deal Brexit issues, and return the pound to some firmer footing.
Nevertheless , sterling could also be pressured lower simply by domestic data, with the UK’ t GDP figure for August anticipated to show a decline in result.
A widening from the UK trade deficit could also view the pound fall further out of prefer, this week, given the lack of clarity around the UK’ s future business relationships. The euro is also very likely to feel the heat, this week.
We’ ve already seen the particular publication of poor German stock data, and a decline in the Eurozone’ s Sentix consumer-confidence index. EUR exchange rates could be pressured reduced, if the rest of the week’ s information supports the case for further easing from your European Central Bank (ECB). The united states dollar, on the other hand, will be reactive in order to global risk appetite, and Federal government Reserve rate cut speculation.
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